GOP Nomination: Wild Ride Ahead J. Randolph Evans Column  No.1090 (10/14/11) Okay, it is officially political chaos out there.  For months, Republicans have flirted with having a 'frontrunner' for the GOP nomination.  Sometimes, the 'frontrunner' has not even been a candidate - like Donald Trump and Governor Mike Huckabee.  There have been 'if she or he ran' frontrunners like Governor Sarah Palin and Governor Chris Christie.  There have been the 'comings and goings' of various candidates as leaders in the latest political polls like Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann and Governor Rick Perry.  And, there is the latest frontrunner, businessman Herman Cain - the author of the 9-9-9 plan.  So far, nothing has gone according to script - at least the script of the mainstream political commentators and pundits.  Early on, some believed that the nomination could be a 'runaway train.' Basically, one candidate would build a head of steam and move toward the nomination in a slow lumbering, but unstoppable, single motion (like Bob Dole).  So far, that has not happened. Certainly, there have been signs recently that Governor Mitt Romney's campaign sees an opening for starting a train.  With Cain's rise as the last of other major candidates, Romney has started to make strong moves toward being the next choice if (and when) Cain stumbles under the glare of the frontrunner spotlight. And so, popular New Jersey Governor Chris Christie steps forward to announce his endorsement of Governor Romney and start the train.  Yet, Governor Romney's challenge remains the same.  As Republican voters have jumped from candidate to candidate, he never seems to be the one that voters want to take to the dance.  Each time another candidate has bubbled up and then fallen back, voters have picked anyone but Governor Romney.  It is a core challenge that he and his campaign must solve.  He has to figure out how to move from being the last choice for the dance to a candidate that folks are excited to take to the dance. Meanwhile, the rest of the field is in a simmering pot of hot political soup.  Basically, every other candidate has challenges of their own. Each must try to figure out how to be the one candidate who not only rises to the top, but also stays there. Three things have kept them all politically alive and viable - even as some of their campaign war chests suffer seriously from their fall from frontrunner status. First, earned media (television, radio, and newspaper coverage which they do not have to actually buy) has trumped paid media (like advertising).  There was a time when candidates could be great messengers with great messages that no one heard because they had no money to buy media.  That has all changed. The steady stream of Presidential debates (where all of the candidates are staged equally and given roughly equal time) has changed all of that.  The nine remaining candidates are guaranteed national exposure with a state emphasis virtually every other week or so.  And, with cable news, the debates live on for days, if not weeks afterwards.  The price tag for such exposure would have been astronomical just a few years ago. Now, for the candidates, it is all FREE.  Second, the sequence or order of the various Presidential primaries and caucuses is in a steady state of flux.  There was a time when Iowa was first; New Hampshire was second; South Carolina was third; and Florida was fourth.  Not only was the order clear, but the schedule was clear. Iowa, with its caucuses, would be in February and the rest would follow in approximately one week intervals.  This predictability permitted the better organized and well-funded campaigns to front-end load their resources in the early states knowing when and where the process would begin and go.  Throw all of that out the window.  States are jumping over other states with at least one threatening a primary in December.  No one knows exactly what will happen.  For some candidates, the changes have greater implications. Congresswoman Bachmann prefers that Iowa go first since most expect her to do very well there.  Governor Romney prefers that New Hampshire act as a speed breaker during (not before) the other early states in case things do not go as well as he needs in Iowa.  Other candidates need a southern state (like South Carolina) early to keep the race within reach.  Finally, candidate endorsement will be big as some of the nine candidates begin to drop out next year.  The question is, which candidate will benefit most when that happens?  No one knows. Do not expect any candidate to go anywhere soon.  On January 1, 2012, some will get a big financial boost - federal matching funds.  Once that happens, Republican voters should strap their seatbelts tightly; it is going to be one wild ride. Vanessa Mussenden | Legal Secretary to J. Randolph Evans, Shari L. Klevens and Matthew Weiss McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP 303 Peachtree Street | Suite 5300  Atlanta, Ga 30308 Tel: 404.527.4596| Fax: 404.527.4198| vmussenden@mckennalong.com CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This e-mail and any attachments contain information from the law firm of McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, and are intended solely for the use of the named recipient or recipients. This e-mail may contain privileged attorney/client communications or work product. Any dissemination of this e-mail by anyone other than an intended recipient is strictly prohibited. If you are not a named recipient, you are prohibited from any further viewing of the e-mail or any attachments or from making any use of the e-mail or attachments. If you believe you have received this e-mail in error, notify the sender immediately and permanently delete the e-mail, any attachments, and all copies thereof from any drives or storage media and destroy any printouts of the e-mail or attachments.