Three Big Dates for GOP Presidential Candidates J. Randolph Evans Column No. 1071 (6/3/11) There are three dates that every Presidential candidate has circled on the calendar.  Individually, none are 'make or break' days alone. Collectively, these three dates will separate the 'wannabes' from the 'real' candidates heading into the nomination marathon that begins in Iowa, moves to New Hampshire, and dashes toward South Carolina. June 13, 2011 is the date for the first GOP Presidential debate in which virtually all of the candidates will appear together on stage.  It will be a big crowd. Yes, there has already been one debate.  And, yes, there will be many more.  But, this debate will set the stage for the weakest of the field to share the spotlight with the media-ordained frontrunners. Back in May, Fox News hosted an early debate in South Carolina without former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and other leading candidates.  In that debate, Herman Cain lit up the field with a very strong performance.  On June 13, 2011, the GOP Presidential debate series moves to Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire.  CNN will televise the debate.  Many more candidates will join the crowded field to explain why they should be the GOP nominee (and why other candidates should not). The pressure on the candidates will be intense.  With two hours of debate, there will be plenty of opportunities for mistakes.  At the same time, with eight or nine candidates on stage, there will be few opportunities for each to make his or her case.  Short, power-packed, fact-filled, statements that 'turn a phrase' will be at a premium as the media condenses two hours of questions and answers into 15-20 second sound bites.  Few will actually watch the debate.  Everyone will see the gaffes. In the subsequent media coverage, outlandish extremes (like legalizing drugs or eliminating the Federal Reserve) will be ignored in favor of the slightest misstatement or the shortest moment of uncertainty.  Every candidate will have their mettle tested. In the end, it will be the contrast (or more likely - the lack of contrast) among the contenders that will be the story.  If the debate is 'blah, blah, blah', then frontrunners get stronger and the 'also rans' start to fade.  But, if there is a spark, it could mean something - something big if the candidate connects; something disastrous if it is a big swing and a miss. July 15, 2011 is the latest date when announced candidates for President must report how much money they have.  (Actually, June 30, 2011 is the cutoff date.  But, under the Federal Election Commission laws and rules, the candidates actually have an extra two weeks - until July 15, 2011 - to file their reports.  Those candidates with good news will report early.  Those with 'not so good' news will wait until the last minute.) In their reports, candidates for President must report how much money they have collected, and how much money they have spent.  This report will tell pundits a lot about who insiders believe the frontrunners are and how effectively they spend their money. To the surprise of no one, President Barack Obama will report enormous - gigantic - really, really big numbers for his fundraising.  He will have raised tens of millions (some predict $60 million) by July 15, 2011, on his way to a total campaign budget of over $1 billion.  Governor Mitt Romney is expected to report some impressive numbers. While not in the Obama league, the combination of Governor Romney's own money and the money he will have raised will catch some eyes.  Everyone concedes that early money is not the best predictor of success. Governor Mike Huckabee's 2008 fundraising numbers were nothing to write home about, but he won the Iowa Republican caucuses with 34%.  In the middle of 2007, Senator John McCain's fundraising problems were so well known that the media dubbed him 'dead man walking.'  At one point, he was carrying his bags through airports.  His campaign manager quit and his campaign ran out of money.  Of course, he went on to become the 2008 GOP Presidential nominee.  Basically, July 15, 2011 is big, butit is not the game. August 13, 2011 is the date of the Ames Straw Poll on the campus of Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa.  This is largely regarded as an early important measure of organizational prowess for Presidential campaigns. Although many candidates will downplay the significance of the Ames Straw Poll, every real candidate will pull out all the stops to do well. What is doing well?  To be credible, a candidate needs to finish among the top three.  (The winner of the Ames Straw Poll has not actually meant much - only three of the five recent winners have gone on to win the Iowa caucuses.) June 13, July 15, and August 13 - circle them now. Vanessa Mussenden | Legal Secretary to J. Randolph Evans and Matthew Weiss McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP 303 Peachtree Street | Suite 5300  Atlanta, Ga 30308 Tel: 404.527.4596| Fax: 404.527.4198| vmussenden@mckennalong.com CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This e-mail and any attachments contain information from the law firm of McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, and are intended solely for the use of the named recipient or recipients. This e-mail may contain privileged attorney/client communications or work product. Any dissemination of this e-mail by anyone other than an intended recipient is strictly prohibited. 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